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Rogelio V. Solis/Associated Press
Quarterbacks, positional-value debates and trades understandably headline the late buzz prior to the NFL draft.
It isn’t called “smokescreen season” for no reason, and that will only increase with less than a week before Commissioner Roger Goodell begins the 2020 draft from his basement in Westchester County, New York, on Thursday.
Buzz can originate anywhere from front offices to prospects’ representatives. The NFL certainly doesn’t mind the intrigue, which gets an additional boost this year via the event’s all-virtual format.
Below, let’s buy or sell the most notable rumors and buzz making the rounds.
Tune in to our 2020 NFL Draft Show for live, in-depth analysis on what each pick means for your team, with hosts Adam Lefkoe, Matt Miller and Connor Rogers. No fluff, no B.S. Download the B/R app and watch starting Thursday, April 23, at 8 p.m. ET.
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Ben Margot/Associated Press
The Jacksonville Jaguars have been looking to move Leonard Fournette, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, and the idea isn’t a hard one to buy into given how the organization has approached the offseason.
The team jettisoned key players in trades, including cornerback A.J. Bouye, defensive lineman Calais Campbell and quarterback Nick Foles—who signed a four-year, $88 million deal just last year—and appear to be in rebuild mode.
The Jags used the fourth overall pick on Fournette in 2017, which wasn’t a great value given the nature of the running back position in today’s NFL. The 25-year-old running back has averaged a paltry four yards per carry over three seasons, scoring 17 times while missing 12 games.
Fournette might not net a noteworthy return, but Jacksonville has until May 4 to exercise its 2021 fifth-year option on his deal. Avoiding a potential contract squabble with a top-five selection who isn’t meeting expectations is a good idea.
Verdict: Buy
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Charlie Neibergall/Associated Press
Considering the draft is a year-round process and teams usually have eyes on prospects years in advance, it’s hard to imagine that a front office doesn’t know what it wants to do in the top five less than a week before the event.
But according to CBS Sports’ Jason La Canfora, the Detroit Lions are “torn” on their decision at No. 3. They reportedly have their eyes on Ohio State cornerback Jeff Okudah, Auburn defensive tackle Derrick Brown and Clemson linebacker Isaiah Simmons.
This sure smells like a smokescreen by a team hoping to trade down and acquire more assets.
With quarterback Matthew Stafford coming back healthy, it makes sense for Detroit to take the best defender available as it rebuilds its 31st-ranked unit under head coach Matt Patricia.
But being undecided on three of the top defenders could encourage a team enamored with one of those names to move up. With the luxury of having their franchise, the Lions can move back if the offer is right and still get a top name.
Verdict: Sell
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Charlie Neibergall/Associated Press
Go big or go home, right?
According to Woody Paige of the Colorado Springs Gazette, the Broncos would like to move up from No. 15 to the Nos. 8-10 range for Alabama’s Jerry Jeudy.
The idea the Denver Broncos could trade up hasn’t been uncommon, as it makes sense for the John Elway-led front office to get aggressive in pursuit of a weapon for second-year quarterback Drew Lock.
If other teams make a run on QBs, pass-rushers and perhaps offensive linemen, eight-to-10 is Jeudy territory. The Crimson Tide star looks like a pro-ready No. 1 wideout, running a 4.45-second 40-yard dash at 6’1″ and 193 pounds after recording 2,700-plus yards and 26 touchdowns over three seasons in Tuscaloosa.
The Broncos already went all-in on offense in free agency, signing lineman Graham Glasgow and running back Melvin Gordon. Moving up to secure someone who appears to be a surefire No. 1 seems like the next step.
Verdict: Buy
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Charlie Neibergall/Associated Press
Player comparisons are always tough. While they’re meant to give a general view of a prospect’s skill set, they sometimes set unrealistic expectations.
According to Bob McGinn of The Athletic, an NFL scout said Georgia Bulldogs running back D’Andre Swift is a more “well-rounded” prospect than 2017 second-rounder Dalvin Cook, especially in the passing game.
That’s a tough sell, though. Swift ran for two consecutive 1,000-yard seasons and caught 73 passes over three seasons. Cook ran for 1,000-plus yards three seasons in a row and caught 79 passes during his college career, averaging 11.8 yards per reception to Swift’s 9.1.
While injuries have hampered Cook in the NFL, he proved in 2019 that he can be a three-down back, rushing for 1,135 yards and 13 touchdowns and catching 53 of his 63 targets for 519 yards with the Minnesota Vikings.
At this point, Swift isn’t even the consensus first running back off the board, though it should be fun to see how he ultimately compares to Cook.
Verdict: Sell
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Charlie Neibergall/Associated Press
Every year, teams remove prospects from their boards because of medical reasons.
A high-profile prospect such as Tua Tagovailoa shouldn’t be an exception.
Per The Athletic’s Michael Lombardi, two teams have removed the star Alabama passer from their boards. Given his past injuries, including two high ankle sprains that needed surgery and the dislocated hip that ended his season in November, it wouldn’t be a surprise if more than a couple of teams said “no thanks.”
Now, it would be interesting to see which teams have already ruled him out. Organizations in the top 10 that desperately need franchise quarterbacks, such as the Miami Dolphins, might not have the luxury passing on a player with Tua’s upside, even with the perceived injury risk.
For what it’s worth, Tagovailoa’s camp has consistently indicated that he’s doing well and will be ready for his rookie season. But no amount of testing will sway some front offices—especially since they are not able to have their own doctors examine prospects because of the coronavirus pandemic.
While this doesn’t necessarily mean a big draft-day fall for Tagovailoa, it’s understandable that some teams will not want to take the risk.
Verdict: Buy
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Vasha Hunt/Associated Press
The Wonderlic test was bound to pop up somewhere.
According to Bob McGinn of The Athletic, some teams are concerned about Tua Tagovailoa’s score of 13, which was the lowest of any player at his position. But MMQB’s Albert Breer followed up with a report that the Alabama passer took the test twice.
But this smells like a smokescreen. A standardized test of 50 questions is an imperfect way to project a quarterback’s ability on the field.
Lamar Jackson, for example, scored a 13 on the Wonderlic in 2018, and last year, he was the league MVP after throwing for 3,127 yards and 36 touchdowns as well as rushing for 1,206 rushing yards and seven scores.
Senior Bowl executive director Jim Nagy put it best: “Wonderlic is a mental red flag and nothing more. Plenty of low text score guys have good football intelligence. The game just makes sense to them. Conversely, have seen many high test score guys that don’t get football. All a low test score will do is make teams do more homework.”
The main concern with Tagovailoa is his injury history.
Verdict: Sell
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Rogelio V. Solis/Associated Press
If the New England Patriots lost Tom Brady only to stumble upon a top-three passer, it would be oh so Bill Belichick, right?
As observers can tell, much of the predraft buzz centers around whether Tua Tagovailoa will fall.
If the Alabama quarterback does, count ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. among those who could see the Patriots getting aggressive, as he noted on WEEI radio in Boston:
“It’s gonna be the million-dollar question. That’s the whole intrigue and the element of the draft that you just can’t figure. … I know everybody’s screaming that Tua’s got to go high, you’ve got to take that risk, and then you hear people in the league saying he could fall, and everybody’s doing their due diligence, including the Patriots. You can rest assured if he gets in the middle of the first round and you’re sitting at 23, wouldn’t you jump up and maybe get him? You know the connection between Bill Belichick and [Tide head coach] Nick Saban.”
It’s hard to see the Patriots passing on Tua in that scenario. The guy has a career 69.3 percent completion rate on 684 passing attempts with 7,442 yards and 87 touchdowns against just 11 interceptions, and he led the Crimson Tide to a national championship.
Prior to his hip injury, Tua was a likely 2019 Heisman Trophy finalist and in contention to be the expected No. 1 pick over Joe Burrow.
If the Patriots see Tagovailoa slip to double digits, Belichick and Co. have to be considered the favorites to move up given their need to reset after the Brady era.
Verdict: Buy
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Charlie Neibergall/Associated Press
Running backs have experienced a recent resurgence on draft day even though teams are grappling with whether to pay up on extensions for players at the position.
While at least one running back has been picked in the first round in each of the past five years, it seems the general consensus among experts is that only one—if that—back will be selected in this year’s first round. Mocks by NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah and Peter Schrager, for example, list zero and one first-round backs.
Teams can certainly find amazing values in the second round and beyond. Dalvin Cook (2017), Derrick Henry (2016) and Joe Mixon (2017) are recent examples, but B/R’s Matt Miller has three backs—Georgia’s D’Andre Swift, LSU’s Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor—ranked in his overall top 30.
With their limited ability to meet prospects this year, teams will depend more on college tape and combine performances. It wouldn’t be surprising if a second running back slipped into the first round.
Verdict: Sell
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