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Giannis Antetokounmpo’s contract situation will be closely watched across the NBA.
The Milwaukee Bucks star could commit his long-term future to the Eastern Conference side, or a bidding war could break out in free agency.
ESPN’s Brian Windhorst (h/t Real GM) discussed on his podcast how Antetokounmpo’s decision to extend with the Bucks this summer could affect the free-agent market:
“One of the things when I talk to executives out there that they say is if Giannis extends with the Bucks this summer, which depending on who you talk to is either a slam dunk or a real question, the Bucks certainly feel like they have a great chance to extend him this summer. If he signs that supermax extension this summer and all of the teams that are sort of saving, you know, keeping their ammo dry for 2021 may begin to make action. They tell me this summer’s star movement may be hinged on whether or not Giannis extends or not. If he extends, you’ll all of a sudden see more action.”
If the 24-year-old chooses to remain in Milwaukee for the long term, he could do so by signing the supermax contract extension worth five years and $248 million, per Spotrac.
If he agrees to that deal over the summer, the contract would begin in 2021, and it would keep him off the open market.
That would be the preferable situation for the Bucks, who are 53-12 and 6.5 points clear of the Toronto Raptors in the Eastern Conference.
With Kawhi Leonard and LeBron James in the Western Conference, the Bucks appear to have the clearest path to the NBA Finals when this season resumes, and for future campaigns.
What Milwaukee has to measure with the Antetokounmpo extension is how much of the salary cap it would eat up and if it could build a contending roster for years to come around him still.
At the moment, the Bucks are paying four players over $10 million per year, with Khris Middleton owning the highest salary for the 2019-20 season at $35.5 million.
Middleton is locked down through the 2024 campaign on a five-year, $177 million deal, and if the Bucks add the Antetokounmpo supermax to their budget, it could eat up significant cap room.
But the risk could be worth it for the Bucks since Antetokounmpo has developed into one of the top stars in the league.
If the Bucks let him walk as a free agent in 2021, they could suffer a significant drop-off, and there is no guarantee they could ink a deal with another marquee free agent.
If the two parties come to an agreement, teams across the league could find more reasons to spend in the summer of 2020, as Windhorst noted.
But any contract drama in Milwaukee will have a trickle-down effect because a handful of franchises could save up to get ready for an Antetokounmpo arms race.
If the supermax is agreed to, the other NBA teams would then look toward the 2020 free-agent class, which includes Hassan Whiteside and Paul Millsap, among others, as unrestricted free agents.
Brandon Ingram and Bogdan Bogdanovic could join that list as well, but they are restricted free agents, while Gordon Hayward, Anthony Davis and DeMar DeRozan are among the stars with player options for the 2020 campaign.
The demand for those players may grow if Antetokounmpo takes himself off the market and teams look to improve right away.
The situation could go in either direction at the moment, but no matter what the decision is, it will affect how the rest of the NBA does business over the next two summers.
Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90
Contract information obtained from Spotrac
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