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Charlie Neibergall/Associated Press
When friends get together, they talk. When members of all 32 NFL front offices and the media get together, they definitely talk. This is why the annual scouting combine in Indianapolis is always a hotbed of NFL draft rumor and speculation.
Of course, virtually nothing coming out of Indianapolis this week can be taken at face value. Plenty of teams and agents will spew smoke while jockeying for position and leverage ahead of April’s draft.
Are there some truths to be gleaned from the combine chatter? Sure. The tricky part is separating fact from fiction roughly two months before the start of Round 1. Let’s dig into some of the latest draft-related buzz coming from the 2020 combine.
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Vasha Hunt/Associated Press
A little over a week ago, Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald reported that the Miami Dolphins didn’t view Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa as a “slam-dunk” pick. He also reported that Miami had an “increasingly positive” view of Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert.
The fractured and dislocated hip Tagovailoa suffered this past season appears to be a concern for Miami. But with his combine medical evaluations “overwhelmingly positive”—according to NFL Media’s Ian Rapoport—Tagovailoa could indeed be Miami’s top option. This is a sentiment recently echoed by Bleacher Report draft analyst Matt Miller.
“One source I spoke with this week said ‘the Dolphins are going to get Tua’ and mentioned it’s classic smokescreen behavior to tell a team-friendly reporter they don’t like Tua in hopes he falls to No. 5 overall,” Miller wrote.
Miller also stated the Dolphins could move up in the draft to secure Tagovailoa if that’s what it takes to secure him. If Tagovailoa is healthy enough to host his scheduled pro day on April 9, it could solidify him as Miami’s preferred prospect.
Verdict: Buy
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Lynne Sladky/Associated Press
It’s a bit early for Miami to be tipping its hand about a trade up in Round 1. According to Miller, however, the Dolphins could be doing exactly that. According to general manager Chris Grier, they’re certainly open to it, possibly even going all the way up to No. 1.
“I don’t think you rule out anything right,” Grier said, per NFL.com’s Grant Gordon. “I think we’re wide open to everything.”
Armed with the fifth, 18th and 26th picks in the draft, the Dolphins do have the capital to move up if they so choose. Moving up to No. 1, though, only feels like a possibility if Miami views LSU quarterback Joe Burrow—the Cincinnati Bengals’ presumed choice—as a far superior prospect to Tagovailoa. Given the Crimson Tide star’s positive medical outlook, that simply may not be the case.
With three teams selecting between Cincinnati and Miami, however, it’s very likely the Dolphins are already weighing their trade options. If Miami falls in love with Tagovailoa—or Herbert, for that matter—missing out while holding onto extra draft picks will be unacceptable.
Verdict: Buy
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Charlie Neibergall/Associated Press
New Washington Redskins head coach Ron Rivera inherited the No. 2 pick in this year’s draft. He also inherited 2019 first-round pick Dwayne Haskins. This is why Rivera’s decision to meet with both Tagovailoa and Burrow at the combine could raise a few eyebrows.
Could the Redskins be looking to move on from Haskins and draft a new quarterback of the future like the Arizona Cardinals did with Josh Rosen and Kyler Murray last year? It’s possible. However, it’s also possible that Washington is only feigning interest in this year’s top quarterbacks in order to increase the value of their No. 2 selection.
This is why the notion that Washington won’t trade down feels like a tough sell.
“In speaking with sources with the Redskins, they say it is unlikely they trade down,” Walterfootball.com’s Charlie Campbell wrote. “They won’t just give the pick away, and the team would require a massive package to move down that would probably need to include multiple first-round picks and more picks on the second day of the 2020 NFL Draft.”
Campbell mentions a Robert Griffin III-type trade package as something that could get a deal done. That may be a bit hyperbolic. An extra first-round selection and another Day 2 pick may be plenty for Washington to swap picks with, say, the Dolphins at No. 5. The Redskins would likely give up a shot at Ohio State pass-rusher Chase Young, but they’d still land an elite prospect and additional pieces with which to rebuild.
Verdict: Sell
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Michael Conroy/Associated Press
While the Redskins are probably open to trading out of the No. 2 spot for any deal that makes sense, the New York Giants are more likely to only seriously consider dropping down a slot or two. According to Miller, the Giants are eying an offensive tackle or a linebacker and could have their pick of both positions at No. 4:
“General manager Dave Gettleman is a wild card when it comes to predicting what the Giants will do, but his history suggests that offensive tackle and linebacker will be priorities in team building. That meshes well with the value on the board, as both Jedrick Wills Jr. (Alabama) and Isaiah Simmons (Clemson) are expected to be available at No. 4 overall.”
If the Giants can trade with Miami at five or the Los Angeles Chargers at six and still land a player like Wills or Simmons, then they may do the deal. Trading much further feels unlikely, which contradicts what Gettleman said at the combine.
“Absolutely we’re open for business,” Gettleman said, per ESPN’s Jordan Raanan.
Gettleman has never traded back in the first round as an NFL general manager. The idea of him being truly “open for business” is just too far out of character.
Verdict: Sell
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Michael Conroy/Associated Press
Even if the Dolphins don’t value Herbert above Tagovailoa, there’s a good chance the Oregon signal-caller is one of the first players off the board. His athletic traits are intriguing, and Herbert showed them off at the combine on Thursday.
“Justin Herbert sure looks the part in Indy, doesn’t he?” former NFL safety Ryan Clark tweeted.
Herbert flashed his arm talent and his quickness, running an unofficial 4.69-second 40-yard dash.
However, physical tools won’t make Herbert a quality Day 1 starter. Former NFL linebacker Emmanuel Acho said he believes that drafting Herbert could be a mistake.
“He could potentially be one of the biggest mistakes of the draft. Because you overdraft him, which means you have to play him immediately,” Acho said on ESPN’s Get Up. “… Justin Herbert, even in his quotes, these are not my words, this is what Justin Herbert said yesterday at the combine. “I don’t know if I’m ready to play right away.'”
While it’s far too early to call drafting Herbert a mistake, the idea that he may not be an instant starter is reasonable. He didn’t have the sustained college success of Tagovailoa or even the single season of greatness Burrow produced. Herbert was promising but inconsistent at Oregon, and that could indeed mean he isn’t ready to lead an NFL franchise right away.
Verdict: Buy
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Vasha Hunt/Associated Press
According to ESPN’s Rich Cimini, the New York Jets “have had their eye” on Alabama wide receiver Henry Ruggs III for a while. Ruggs is extremely unlikely to slip into the second round—especially after running a 4.28-second unofficial 40-yard dash on Thursday—so this suggests that New York is targeting a wideout in Round 1, right?
Well, not necessarily. As Miller recently pointed out, the Jets have bigger needs than at wide receiver.
“The New York Jets need a wide receiver, but you’d be hard-pressed to find a plugged-in evaluator who thinks general manager Joe Douglas will use the No. 11 pick on one,” Miller wrote.
Offensive tackle is a far bigger need for New York, and Miller suggests that the Jets, who have the 11th pick, could spread “rumors about how good this year’s quarterback class is” in order to get quarterbacks drafted high and tackles pushed outside the top 10.
The fact that the Jets are interested in signing Robby Anderson to a hefty free-agent contract also suggests that guys like Ruggs, Alabama’s Jerry Jeudy and Clemson’s Tee Higgins won’t be serious considerations at 11 unless they are the best players available.
According to Pro Football Network’s Tony Pauline, the Jets plan “to make a push” to retain Anderson, who could command roughly $15 million per year on the open market.
It’s unlikely New York would have such interest in investing in Anderson if receiver was a top draft priority.
Verdict: Sell
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Bill Sikes/Associated Press
Will the New England Patriots draft Tom Brady’s replacement this year? A lot of that depends on Brady and where he ends up after free agency. If Brady decides to leave New England, then sure, the Patriots are probably looking to grab a signal-caller early. Will they draft a quarterback even if Brady returns? According to the combine buzz, yes.
“A quarterback will be drafted by New England this year, according to one source within the team,” Miller wrote. “Whether that’s in Round 1 or later depends on Tom Brady’s free-agency decision. League sources still believe Brady returns to the Patriots for 2020.”
This is believable because the Patriots have regularly drafted quarterbacks with Brady on the roster. They drafted Jarrett Stidham last year, Jacoby Brissett in 2016, Jimmy Garoppolo in 2014 and Ryan Mallett in 2011.
But if the Patriots are trying to keep Brady, then they’re going to have to use their draft capital to surround him with talent for another title run. Otherwise, he won’t be interested in returning.
“The team that Brady plays for in 2020 won’t be the winner of a bidding war, it will be the one that provides the best ready-made landing spot to compete for a championship,” Tom E. Curran of NBC Sports Boston wrote.
Adding another quarterback behind Brady and Stidham won’t make the Patriots a bigger title contender. Don’t expect quarterback to be a priority if Brady is back.
Verdict: Sell
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David Zalubowski/Associated Press
It’s felt like Las Vegas Raiders head coach Jon Gruden has been looking to move on from quarterback Derek Carr ever since arriving. However, the transition to a new signal-caller may not happen in the first round of this draft.
According to The Athletic’s Vic Tafur, “it doesn’t seem” like Gruden is high enough on Tagovailoa or Herbert to trade up. General manager Mike Mayock also has reservations about taking Utah State’s Jordan Love in Round 1.
“He throws a lot of interceptions, and he is very raw in terms of what he is getting from the sideline. He is reading off his wrist guard,” Mayock said, per Tafur. “So, like a lot of college players, he has a long way to go. And you have to factor that into what his ultimate value is.”
Value should be important to the Raiders, who are still in the early stages of a rebuild. They have two picks in the first round and should be focused on getting two surefire starters with them. Replacing Carr this offseason isn’t a necessity.
Should either Herbert or Tagovailoa somehow fall to No. 12 (Las Vegas also has the 19th pick), then Gruden and Mayock will have a difficult decision to make. As things stand, the Raiders are likely eyeing other positions in Round 1.
Verdict: Buy
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