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Spring training is roughly a month away, and many of the top free agents and trade targets have been signed or swapped. The 2020 MLB season is coming into focus.
Still, some impact players are left dangling on the market. On the trade front, Francisco Lindor, Kris Bryant and others are theoretically available. In free agency, Josh Donaldson and Marcell Ozuna top the list of available names.
Let’s parse the latest news, speculation and buzz about them, then play a round of buy or sell. For our purposes, buying means we believe the reports, and selling means it’s not happening.
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The Chicago Cubs are in a transitional phase, not quite rebuilding but not quite going all-in. So it’s no surprise rumors have swirled around third baseman and 2016 National League MVP Kris Bryant.
After an injury-marred 2018, Bryant hit 31 home runs with a .903 OPS last season, and he’s still just 28 years old. He’d be a prize for any number of contenders.
MLB insider Ken Rosenthal tossed out the Los Angeles Dodgers as a possible destination for Bryant but noted there’s an unknown variable in his unresolved service-time grievance, which will determine whether he becomes a free agent after the 2020 or 2021 season.
With so much uncertainty swirling, it doesn’t feel like the Cubs will make a move before the 2020 trade deadline—if they make one at all. To add a caveat, though: If Bryant wins his grievance and becomes an impending free agent after 2020, Chicago may be more motivated to shop him now.
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Matt Marton/Associated Press
Most of the marquee free agents have already landed deals, but Nicholas Castellanos remains unsigned one season after swatting 27 home runs with an .863 OPS for the Detroit Tigers and Chicago Cubs. He’ll turn 28 in March, which means he’s got a chunk of his prime left to go.
Recently, Jon Paul Morosi of MLB.com reported the Texas Rangers “are among the finalists” to ink him.
It seems like a fit.
Castellanos has logged big league innings in the infield and outfield, and the Rangers are in need of a versatile right-handed bat. He also wouldn’t force Texas to dip into its farm system, and he isn’t attached to draft-pick compensation because he was traded last season.
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Bill Sikes/Associated Press
Recently, we examined the pros and cons of the Los Angeles Dodgers acquiring outfielder Mookie Betts and left-hander David Price from the Boston Red Sox. Many, including Morosi, have reported active talks between the two clubs.
It’s an intriguing notion. The Dodgers are desperate to win their first title since 1988 after a string of near misses. The Red Sox are reportedly looking to shed salary and stay under the luxury tax. Betts is entering his final year of arbitration and will earn a boatload of cash, while Price is owed $96 million over the next three years.
The Dodgers have deep pockets and prospects to spare. Betts, the 2018 American League MVP, would instantly improve their lineup and excite the SoCal fanbase.
But the logical move for Boston may be to hang on to him until at least the trade deadline and see if the team is in contention. If not, it could deal him (and maybe Price). If so, it could keep him for one more run before he hits free agency.
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John Bazemore/Associated Press
In 2019, his second season with the St. Louis Cardinals, outfielder Marcell Ozuna hit 29 home runs with an .800 OPS, a performance he described as “not bad, not good,” per MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch.
Yet he rejected the Cardinals’ qualifying offer, which would have guaranteed him a one-year, $17.8 million payday. Now, he’s a free agent looking for a job.
According to Neftali Ruiz of the Dominican Republic’s CDN37 (h/t Lone Star Ball’s Adam J. Morris), the Rangers and Cardinals are among the teams that have pursued Ozuna, and St. Louis is the two-time All-Star’s preferred destination.
Considering the Cards are the only team that wouldn’t surrender draft-pick compensation by signing Ozuna and they’re trying to defend an NL Central crown, a reunion would make a lot of sense.
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David Zalubowski/Associated Press
Colorado Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado’s name has churned through the rumor mill this winter. As Morosi reported, there’s “roughly a 50/50 chance” the five-time All-Star and seven-time Gold Glove winner will be moved.
Here’s the problem: Josh Donaldson, another top-shelf third baseman, remains unsigned (we’ll get to him shortly). His presence on the market means any team with a need at the position has an option who won’t cost prospects outside of qualifying-offer compensation.
Further, Arenado’s age and talent level are such that a Rockies club with potential plans for contention (they made the postseason as a wild-card entrant in 2018) can afford to keep him for at least another half-season. Remember, he’s entering his age-29 campaign and is signed through 2026 with an opt-out after 2021. There’s no pressing need for the Rockies to trade him now.
At the 2020 trade deadline or next winter? Maybe. But we’re betting against Arenado changing squads this offseason.
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Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press
The Cleveland Indians have already traded ace right-hander Corey Kluber to the Texas Rangers and are obviously open to selling high-end assets. Would they also consider trading shortstop Francisco Lindor?
He’s 26 years old, has earned MVP votes each of the last four seasons and just won his second Gold Glove. He’s also controllable through 2021. In other words, the return would have to be astronomical.
Multiple clubs have been linked to the four-time All-Star. But based on recent remarks by Indians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti, Lindor donning a new uniform before the first pitch of 2020 is unlikely.
“I still have every expectation that Francisco will be our shortstop Opening Day,” Antonetti told reporters. “I’m more confident today in saying that, as more of the offseason has passed. But that’s still our expectation.”
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The Washington Nationals won the World Series in 2019. Then they lost third baseman Anthony Rendon to the Los Angeles Angels in free agency.
That’s a huge hole to fill for the defending champs. So far on the infield front, they’ve re-upped veterans Howie Kendrick and Asdrubal Cabrera and inked Starlin Castro and Eric Thames. Plus, they’ve got prospect Carter Kieboom waiting in the wings.
Despite those moves and the franchise’s internal options, Donaldson “remains in the picture” for Washington, according to USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale.
It would be a coup to pluck the three-time All-Star and 2015 AL MVP away from the division-rival Atlanta Braves. It also seems like the Nats have already executed their contingency plan at the hot corner.
As Nightengale noted, the Braves are “the clear-cut favorite” to retain Donaldson.
All statistics courtesy of Baseball Reference.
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