Dwayne Johnson, Idris Elba and Jason Statham in ‘Hobbs & Shaw’
Universal
Just before the summer of 1999, George Lucas and Steven Spielberg allegedly made a gentlemen’s wager concerning the opening weekend potential of The Phantom Menace. Spielberg swore that Episode One would earn more on its Fri-Sun frame (of what eventually would be a Wed-Sun launch) than The Lost World had over its record-crushing Fri-Sun frame (of a Fri-Mon Memorial Day launch). The Star Wars prequel earned a record-breaking $105 million in five days, but its Fri-Sun figure was $64 million, just shy of the $74 million Fri-Sun debut of the Jurassic Park sequel.
As a result, Spielberg was allegedly stuck with the bill when the two of them (and their respective families) went on holiday together. This weekend sees the release of David Leitch’s Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw. The film is the first big and blustery “real world” action movie since mid-May, and as such is itching to be essentially the year’s first non-Disney/non-MCU blockbuster. But in terms of domestic grosses, there’s a chance that it’ll end up earning less in North America than that other mid-May actioner, thanks to Chad Stahelski’s John Wick: Chapter 3 earned a stunning $170 million.
Fun fact: Chad Stahelski and David Leitch co-directed John Wick back in late 2014, before its critical and commercial success took them in different directions. Leitch moved to the city to helm Atomic Blonde, Deadpool 2 and Hobbs & Shaw. Stahelski stayed on the farm and helmed the next two John Wick sequels to critical and moderate commercial success. There is now a very good chance that the $200 million-budgeted Dwayne Johnson/Jason Statham spin-off will earn less domestically than the $75 million Keanu Reeves sequel.
Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw opened in North America yesterday with a solid $22.5 million. That includes $5.8 million in Thursday previews and is essentially tied with the opening Fridays of Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation ($20.5 million in 2015), Jason Bourne ($22.6 million in 2016), Mission: Impossible – Fallout ($22.8 million in 2018) and John Wick: Chapter 3 ($22.6 million in 2019). As such, it stands to reason that the film will open this weekend somewhere between $55 million (Rogue Nation) and $62 million (Fallout).
On its face, that’s a solid and promising opening weekend for a key spin-off from Universal’s crown jewel action franchise. Yes, it’s the lowest Fast & Furious opening since Fast & Furious relaunched the franchise with a $70 million debut in April of 2009, but this “extra crispy” spin-off was always expected to play a little softer than the “original recipe” installments. The only issue is that the Dwayne Johnson/Jason Statham team-up flick cost around $200 million, meaning it essentially must pull, at minimum, Fast Five numbers ($611 million in 2011) to justify itself.
Moreover, the franchise, at least in North America, will balance two competing variables. On the one hand, the Fast & Furious movies aren’t very leggy and haven’t been since Fast & Furious ($155 million from that $70 million launch). If it merely legs out like a standard F&F movie, presuming a $60 million debut, we’re looking at a multiplier between 2.21x ($133 million domestic) and 2.43x ($146 million). That would be a genuine disappointment, both due to the budget, the franchise history and because it would mean the film has to depend on an overseas bailout.
It would also mean, miracle of miracles, that David Leitch’s Hobbs & Shaw would gross less in North America than Chad Stahelski’s John Wick: Chapter 3 ($170 million). There is another big variable at play. Hobbs & Shaw is the last big movie of the summer, and it’ll be the last “event movie” in theaters between now and It Chapter Two just after Labor Day. And it’ll bet the last kid-friendly biggie at least until Ang Lee’s PG-13 “Will Smith versus Will Smith” actioner Gemini Man on October 11.
The designated “last biggie of the summer” flicks tend to leg out whether they are very good (The Sixth Sense) or very bad (Suicide Squad). The last two Mission: Impossible movies both pulled 3.5x multipliers, as did Guardians of the Galaxy in 2014. At worst, we’re probably looking at a 2.43x multiplier like Suicide Squad, but realistically speaking I’d argue the “pessimistic” scenario is closer to Straight Outta Compton (2.66 x its $60 million launch in August of 2015). That would still be “only” $160 million domestic, but c’est la vie. A 2.9x (TMNT) multiplier would give it a $176 million finish, which at least would put it over John Wick 3.
A multiplier like Jason Bourne (2.745 x its $59 million debut in August of 2016) or Spectre (2.85 x its $70 million bow in November of 2015) gets Hobbs & Shaw between $165 million and $171 million. A run like The Meg (3.25 x its $44 million debut in August of 2018) or the last two Mission: Impossible movies gets it between $197 million and $210 million, which would be right in the ballpark in terms of the franchise average. Nonetheless, it’s expected to earn around $195 million worldwide this weekend, and a 2.5x global multiplier puts it at around $488 million.
The important caveat is that China is waiting in the wings on August 23. Fast & Furious 6 earned $66 million in China in 2013, while Furious 7 earned $392 million there in 2015 and Fate of the Furious earned $393 million in 2017. Point being, the franchise got super-duper popular within two years, and (all due respect) I don’t think it was about Chinese audiences mourning the untimely demise of Paul Walker. Dwayne Johnson and Jason Statham are both notable draws in China, as is Vin Diesel.
To what extent will this spin-off play like a Fast & Furious movie as opposed to a general Rock (Rampage‘s $156 million gross), Statham (The Meg‘s $153 million gross) and Diesel (xXx: The Return of Xander Cage‘s $164 million gross) flick? That could mean the difference between $150 million in China and $250 million-plus, which in turn would mean the difference between a $650 million global cume and an over/under $725 million finish. But domestically speaking, it’s a coin toss as to whether Leitch’s (far higher-profile) PG-13 action spectacular will earn more than Stahelski’s R-rated action spectacular. Place your bets.
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