A Record-Breaking 'Avengers: Infinity War' Isn't The Only Thing Movie Theaters Should Be Celebrating
ANAHEIM, CA – JULY 15: (L-R) Actors Sebastian Stan, Dave Bautista, Karen Gillan, Pom Klementieff, Benedict Cumberbatch, Chadwick Boseman, Josh Brolin, and Chris Hemsworth, producer Kevin Feige, and actors Robert Downey Jr., Mark Ruffalo, Tom Holland, Elizabeth Olsen, Paul Bettany, Don Cheadle, and Anthony Mackie of AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR took part today in the Walt Disney Studios live action presentation at Disney’s D23 EXPO 2017 in Anaheim, Calif. AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR will be released in U.S. theaters on May 4, 2018. (Photo by Jesse Grant/Getty Images for Disney)
In my last article, I predicted a record box office of $12 billion this year, driven by the rapid growth of movie subscription services like MoviePass and Sinemia. We are about a third of the way through the year, so let’s take a look at box office performance so far to see if we can find evidence that there has been a material change in moviegoing.
Does beating analyst expectations in a single quarter prove subscription models are driving people back to the movie theater? While it’s true, the quality of the movies will always be the most important factor in determining box office (e.g. Black Panther), we can find evidence in the Q1 numbers that subscription services are having a material effect on the box office.
One way is to look at the box office numbers outside the top 12 grossing movies in each week. This should help us see a trend in movie going that is less affected by tent-pole movie releases and movie critic reviews and focus on the trend in attendance for movies that are already many weeks into their theatrical runs.
Using data from Box Office Mojo, we can see a large increase in the weekly box office so far this year for movies outside the top 12 highest grossing. At this point in 2016 and 2017, the box office for these movies grew 4 percent and 2 percent, respectively, year-over-year. Those increases roughly equaled the price appreciation of movie tickets each year, so admissions essentially stayed flat.
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Analysts are predicting this weekend’s opening for Avengers: Infinity War to be one for the record books, with most projections estimating more than $200 million, and some predicting upwards of $250 million, which would be a new North American record.
That’s good news for movie theater companies, which are already having a remarkably good year, despite many of those same analysts questioning the viability of the movie theater model going forward. I’ve been bullish on the movie theater model as one that is ripe for innovation, disruption and rebirth. That process is already underway, and the results so far (more so than any individual movie release) should have theater companies (and their investors) rejoicing.
First quarter box office is in the books, and the results were solid, falling just shy of last year’s record-breaking Q1 box office by 2 percent, according to Box Office Mojo. That is significantly better than analysts initial double-digit decline projections, yet sentiment toward this year’s box office remains tepid. Many analysts are still bearish on movie theater stocks and believe the outperformance was solely due to the success of Black Panther.
ANAHEIM, CA – JULY 15: (L-R) Actors Sebastian Stan, Dave Bautista, Karen Gillan, Pom Klementieff, Benedict Cumberbatch, Chadwick Boseman, Josh Brolin, and Chris Hemsworth, producer Kevin Feige, and actors Robert Downey Jr., Mark Ruffalo, Tom Holland, Elizabeth Olsen, Paul Bettany, Don Cheadle, and Anthony Mackie of AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR took part today in the Walt Disney Studios live action presentation at Disney’s D23 EXPO 2017 in Anaheim, Calif. AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR will be released in U.S. theaters on May 4, 2018. (Photo by Jesse Grant/Getty Images for Disney)
In my last article, I predicted a record box office of $12 billion this year, driven by the rapid growth of movie subscription services like MoviePass and Sinemia. We are about a third of the way through the year, so let’s take a look at box office performance so far to see if we can find evidence that there has been a material change in moviegoing.
Does beating analyst expectations in a single quarter prove subscription models are driving people back to the movie theater? While it’s true, the quality of the movies will always be the most important factor in determining box office (e.g. Black Panther), we can find evidence in the Q1 numbers that subscription services are having a material effect on the box office.
One way is to look at the box office numbers outside the top 12 grossing movies in each week. This should help us see a trend in movie going that is less affected by tent-pole movie releases and movie critic reviews and focus on the trend in attendance for movies that are already many weeks into their theatrical runs.
Using data from Box Office Mojo, we can see a large increase in the weekly box office so far this year for movies outside the top 12 highest grossing. At this point in 2016 and 2017, the box office for these movies grew 4 percent and 2 percent, respectively, year-over-year. Those increases roughly equaled the price appreciation of movie tickets each year, so admissions essentially stayed flat.
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